Climate protests and European stock returns

01The question

This MSc Finance dissertation, presented at the University of Edinburgh for 2020/2021, examined stock returns around Fridays for Future climate protests in 2019. The question was whether financial markets appeared to respond to a movement primarily seeking changes in government policy.

02The approach

The study used an event-study framework and a simple market model, with the MSCI European index as the benchmark. Seven reported event periods were examined, using daily average abnormal returns, cumulative abnormal returns and parametric and nonparametric tests.

An abnormal return is the difference between an observed return and the return expected by the model. It is not necessarily a fall in the whole stock market.

03What the reported results show

Some daily negative abnormal returns were statistically significant under the parametric tests. The Corrado rank test provided more limited support. All seven reported cumulative returns were negative at day +4, while three were negative at day +15.

The lowest reported cumulative abnormal return was -2.45%, nine days after Event 3. That was an interim low point; the same event’s reported day +15 value was +0.17%. The study does not establish that protests caused the observed returns or that attendance has a proven effect on returns.

04About the amended summary

The four-page summary was edited on 26 October 2026 to improve grammar, references, statistical terminology and the precision of its claims. The original numerical tables have been retained, with review notes.

• The original documents give different company counts and estimation-window definitions.
• The May event is labelled 25 May 2019, a Saturday, while the global strike took place on 24 May. The event alignment needs checking.
• Three cumulative-return transitions do not reconcile with the displayed daily average returns.

These points require the original data and R output to resolve. The figures should be read as reported historical estimates with unresolved verification issues.

05A later follow-up

The September 2026 climate-protest study returns to the question with a different event register and sample. It is a separate exploratory study, rather than a like-for-like replication of the dissertation.