Climate protests and stock returns revisited
What does a fresh event register show about short-term stock-price reactions to climate protests?
No statistically reliable average short-term negative abnormal return was detected in the sample. Meaningful financial effects remain possible.
Open research report PDF · 5 pages
01The question
This September 2026 study revisited the relationship between climate protests and stock returns, extending the enquiry to global strike dates, actions directed at named companies and weekly protest activity.
It follows the subject of James Bell’s Edinburgh dissertation, using a different sample and methodology. Its results are not a like-for-like replication of the original paper.
02The approach
The research assembled a register of 15 major Fridays for Future dates and screened directly targeted protest events. The final targeted analysis covered 14 dates. It also examined weekly registry observations and used alternative windows, sensitivity checks and placebo comparisons.
The event register is a convenience sample, not a complete or representative record of climate protests. Returns use split-adjusted quote-close prices rather than a validated total-shareholder-return series.
03What the study found
The sampled protests did not show a statistically reliable average immediate negative abnormal return. Some large individual losses coincided with material company or market news, making a simple attribution to the protest unreliable.
Failure to detect a reliable average effect does not establish that protests have no financial cost. The confidence intervals, sample coverage and competing news leave meaningful effects unresolved.
04Limits and interpretation
Publicity and source coverage influence which events can be recovered. Several company actions share dates, and broad strike dates can overlap with other news. Those features limit causal interpretation and the independence of observations.
The study addresses short-window repricing. Operational disruption, changes in public opinion, regulation and longer-term business consequences are different outcomes and require different evidence.
Read the research report
The PDF includes the underlying report presentation, references and research qualifications. Its original research date is 18 September 2026.
Research report: Climate protests and stock returns revisited (PDF, 5 pages) ↗
Independent exploratory research developed for James Bell with AI assistance. The brief includes the method, sources and material limitations; it does not claim to prove or disprove a causal effect.
Published on the NSV website on . Publication does not refresh the original evidence. Research and modelled scenarios are not investment recommendations or validated operating results.